Cost Structure, Unit Economics & Pilot ROI Logic
1. Cost per Tree (Pilot Phase Estimates)
Indicative pilot economics are designed to remain capital-efficient while generating decision-grade data.
| Cost Component | Estimated Cost (USD / tree) | Notes |
| Fungal consortium & materials | 500 | Proprietary preparation & handling |
| Application & field labor | 300 | Trained technicians |
| Monitoring & documentation | 400 | Data, inspections, records |
| Pilot overhead & QA | 400 | Supervision, compliance |
| Total per Tree | 1,600 | Pilot-scale cost |
(Costs expected to decrease 20–35% at commercial scale)
2. Cost per Hectare (Pilot Density Model)
Assuming 1,000 agarwood trees per hectare:
| Metric | Low Case | High Case |
| Trees per hectare | 800 | 1,000 |
| Cost per tree (Php) | 2,500 | 4,000 |
| Total pilot cost / ha (Php) | 2,000,000 | 4,000,000 |
3. Value Creation Logic (Per Tree)
Pilot ROI is modeled conservatively using resin probability uplift, not full luxury-grade assumptions.
| Parameter | Conservative Case | Upside Case |
| Successful resin induction rate | 30% | 50% |
| Marketable resin per successful tree | 0.3 kg | 0.6 kg |
| Avg. resin value (USD/kg) | 1,200 | 2,500 |
| Gross value per tree | 108 | 750 |
4. Pilot ROI Logic (Per Hectare)
Conservative Case (400 trees/ha):
- Pilot cost: ~USD 9,200–14,000
- Gross resin value: ~USD 43,000
- Gross multiple: ~3.1×–4.7×
Upside Case (500 trees/ha):
- Pilot cost: ~USD 14,000–18,000
- Gross resin value: ~USD 187,500
- Gross multiple: ~10×–13×
(Excludes downstream extraction, oil, and fragrance premiums)
5. Strategic Upside Beyond Pilot Cash Flow
- Data-driven protocol validation enabling licensing revenue
- Faster commercialization timeline
- Reduced biological risk for estate-scale investors
- Optional downstream integration (CESI, fragrance partners)
6. Commercial Scale Effect
Upon pilot success:
- Cost per tree expected to decline materially
- Revenue per tree increases with protocol refinement
- Portfolio-level returns improve through scale and vertical integration
All figures are indicative estimates for pilot evaluation purposes and subject to biological, market, and operational variables.