Technical & Financial Triggers for Commercial Scale-Up
The Go / No-Go Decision Matrix provides an objective, data-driven framework to determine whether MycoResin™ protocols proceed from pilot phase to commercial deployment. Decisions are based on measured biological performance, economic viability, and ESG compliance.
1. Technical Performance Triggers
| Metric | No-Go Threshold | Review Zone | Go Threshold |
| Resin initiation rate | <20% | 20–35% | ≥35% |
| Resin density & spread | Localized / sparse | Moderate | Uniform / expandable |
| Time to resin visibility | >18 months | 12–18 months | ≤12 months |
| Tree survival rate | <90% | 90–94% | ≥95% |
| Protocol repeatability | Inconsistent | Site-dependent | Consistent across sites |
Interpretation:
- Failure to meet ≥2 Go thresholds results in No-Go or protocol redesign.
- Mixed outcomes enter Review Zone with refinement and re-validation.
2. Financial Performance Triggers
| Metric | No-Go Threshold | Review Zone | Go Threshold |
| Cost per tree (USD) | >40 | 30–40 | ≤30 |
| Gross value per tree (USD) | <80 | 80–150 | ≥150 |
| Gross multiple (pilot) | <2× | 2×–3× | ≥3× |
| Payback period | >36 months | 24–36 months | ≤24 months |
| Scalability economics | Non-replicable | Conditional | Replicable & scalable |
Interpretation:
- Financial Go requires at least 3 metrics in the Go Threshold.
- Review Zone outcomes may proceed with cost optimization plans.
3. ESG & Compliance Triggers
| Metric | No-Go | Go |
| Tree mortality impact | Elevated | Neutral or reduced |
| Chemical / toxicity profile | Non-compliant | Non-toxic, compliant |
| Environmental permitting | At risk | Fully aligned |
| Farmer / worker safety | Unverified | Verified & documented |
Failure in any ESG compliance metric results in automatic No-Go.
4. Strategic Triggers
| Factor | No-Go | Go |
| IP defensibility | Weak / exposed | Protected / controllable |
| Partner readiness | No anchor partners | LOIs / pilot partners |
| Downstream integration | None | CESI / fragrance alignment |
| Capital efficiency | High burn | Capital disciplined |
5. Decision Outcomes
- GO: Proceed to commercial scale, licensing, and JV expansion
- CONDITIONAL GO: Limited rollout with protocol refinement
- NO-GO: Redesign, pause, or terminate protocol pathway
6. Investor Governance
- Independent technical review
- Investor reporting pack
- Board-level commercialization vote
This matrix ensures disciplined capital deployment and protects investor downside while preserving biological upside.